🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.
這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html
(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).
關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.
分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".
分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.
🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.
Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.
產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.
Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."
🌻SPAC熱潮退卻,初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示,在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%,市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"
"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金,以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者,都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊,他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場,所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上,SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元,高於一年前的約1,000億美元,反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。
但即便如此,今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠,扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域,其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡,一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"
"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環,因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價,投資者就更有可能這樣做,而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前,在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中,超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。
投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少,讓其更難實現業務目標,並可能加劇股價跌勢。"
https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC
🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.
The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.
https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972
Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers
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< 2804 Days On Road>
#SEA #Laos #ThisIsBad
#文很長 #但很重要 #我用手機打的 #看一下嘛
以下的言論皆源自於我這五個月來的東南亞旅行經驗,當然我無法以偏概全地說這些日子來只有負面的成長體驗,畢竟每個人的旅程不同,個性和抉擇也不同,甚至幸運度也不同;但是能多知道一些招式避開一點麻煩,未嘗也不是件經驗的積累與學習🤓🤓
All these following experience were based on my SEA trip which is counting 5 months so far, I ain't say there's nothing good here, how ever to know more to avoid more necessary troubles are indeed, how do you say😆😆
-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-
Take care what are you paying for.
Dine in the shop? Getting a room or bed? Pay for the entrance? Make sure you double, triple check things up n welcome to SEA🍈🌞👙
餐廳點餐嗎?住宿找房嗎?景區買票嗎?
噢哇哇哇嗚,記得再二、再三確認一下所有細節,哈雷路亞,你會發現許多世界真奇妙。
然後,歡迎來到東南亞🌴🌻🍉🍍
-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-
After 5 months traveling in SEA, Let's talk about the latest thing just happened to me.
其實幾乎每天都有新的暴怒秒斷線場景發生,也瘋狂地都想寫出來讓大夥兒知道旅行路上到底藏匿了多少不知道;但要碼是決定打開滿背包的酒精喝他一個暢快,要碼是還是想出外跟著路上新歡探一探新的處女帶;再加上新電腦第二次爆炸掉,總總加上林林,唉還是先來說說我最新產出的暗事吧
I was booking through Hostelworld to stay at Vang Viang rock backpacker hostel for 2 nights which the price showns about 23k kip (around $2.9 ) per night (8000 kip is a dollar) as you need to prepaid the service fee to the searching website, so I was paying $1.32 n leave the rest of the $4.68 while check in. However the owner of the hostel was show up with total amount of 60k I need to pay for 2 nights stay, after I remind him I prepaid some on line already n he was replied back "yes yes OK OK" then kept on repeating 60k I need to pay, so I wasn't really pay too much attention on it, since I was tired by the long ride plus I thought I did my confirm already.
有高於一半多一點的機會我會在到下一個目的地前先網上訂好房,沒為啥因為這些個國家網路之爛還有所謂的“ XX 時間 (請自行放入各國家名)” 簡單來講就是時間表聽聽就好別當真。
不管怎樣,在原應開四小時最多五小時就能到的地方,因為司機想多沿街拉點人填飽點口袋餵飽點全家,我凌晨三點半(開了十二小時)才被丟到空無一人的荒野街上,半猜半走半驚慌的終於找到我該住的青旅。查價時還是很爽的,近乎150天平均住宿約莫落在100塊,最最貴也不過165,跟其他地區動輒3、400起跳的除了沒冷氣、沒廚房、衛生環境很差、大抵沒有交流區、比起說青旅倒不如說是住民宿別人家、沒人能講英文、網路永遠連不上線、櫃台永遠都找不到人之外倒也沒辦法抱怨什麼。
There for, I took out the only 100k I was having (there was only a 100k n a 2000rip note in my wallet) however the owner was shows up with loads of note front of me also started to count: "1000, 1000, 1000, 2000, 1000, 2000, oh I don't have enough! I own you 2000" .
I was feeling there's something wrong, but since he was kept telling me "this is OK, this is OK, I own you 2000 with a big smile" so I wasn't really think too much just took the deck of thousands n went back to my room.
總而言之呢, 頂著一副反正我已經打理好不知道哪來還學不到教訓的自信心,及平白因為大巴誤點浪費了一天床費的我走到了櫃台邊想Check in。“好哦,倆個晚上(連昨晚)六萬kip (8k 老撾幣= 1美金= 30台幣 )”, 因為長途巴士的關係其實我的精神還頗遭雖然說我有覺得對這六萬好像沒啥記憶點跟連接點,但是憑著掌櫃的持續不斷像唸RAP一樣的一直跟我說六萬六萬六萬六萬倆個晚上付我六萬,再丟了一句我網上有先付過手續費囉之下,掏出了我錢包中僅有的一張100k (10萬) 然後再看著他掏出整個口袋後開始算錢給我看:
1000、1000、1000、2000、1000、2000啊我欠你2k
I was in room while I tried to sorted my things out also put the change back to my wallet there comes just a thought, how much did I exactly booked per night? So I opened my Gmail n checked the price again, it is writing 6 dollars in total (48k kip, even you count the rate a bit higher then it should be around 50k), but I was been asking for 60k, there was even some prepaid bill already, there is no reason he charged me even higher amount then what I should have to pay, I was getting quite panic n recall back the memory then there comes more of it: I was hung the owner 100k, even he charged me 60k, I still should have the 40k change back, but he was tricking me with those thousand note, so instead of 40k, I got 8k withing pure thought he owns me 2k, what's a play, what a jerk.
其實我還是覺得很奇怪,從頭到尾。可是腦子真的轉不太動,加上他一直用傳直銷那種震撼人心的精神喊話附送一個招牌笑容;所以莫名其妙之下我就半抓著頭邊上樓了。倚著床坐下,好奇心驅使之下我還是試著重開Gmail想確定一下我到底訂的價錢是多少,沒想到不開還好一開嚇到,我明明總房費只需6美金(48k)就好啊,他跟我要了60k,再加上我事前早就預付了差不多12k,他還在那邊堆著笑跟我OK OK?
瞬間我又覺得不妙,翻了一翻他找給我的錢臉拉的又更沈了,你媽媽的果真只有8k?就算依著他的60k 加他嘴裡說的欠我2k好了,剩下的38k 咧?
I went to tried argue with the owner, he was totally denied it, says the hostel will never charge the price so low till I showed him the proof from my Gmail then he turned down n said I was giving him 70k only n he did pay me back the money already. As the Q & A is like catching ball I see this ain't go no where, so I asked him to call back the video which he did, because I started to get some quiet attention already (which is good).
房裡的小夥伴們聲聲催促著我別再算了,趕快下樓找他對帳,我也覺得沒錯時間拖得越久越容易裝傻賴帳,於是我下樓又重新霹靂啪啦蹦地把事情經過跟他重覆一遍;沒想到他真的開始演台劇八點檔了... 一下跟我說他已經找錢完畢了,一下瞪大眼睛跟我裝傻說青旅哪有可能有這價錢,一直到我開了信箱給他看我的訂單收據,他才換口說好吧好吧那我給你預付的錢,丟了一張20k 給我後,我繼續跟他討著我那消失的欠款,那想到他口口聲聲換咬定著我只給他70k了。
On the screen I can clearly see I did only giving him one note which is a 100k note, but 2 note as 1 50k n 1 20k like he said, so I was calling n said see its only one, then I realized him wasn't even watching the screen. I was getting angry, there are 3 people (include 2 other guests) checking the screen together with me, as we all confirmed that I did passing him only one note, but he just kept pretending busy as there are other things to do then this situation: Try wave to air, even there are no people, say hi to other guests while they walk down stairs, pretend there's nothing happened. I was showing him 5 times in total on the screen, but he always tells me he didn't see, so I just have to keep rewind back to let him see it. During the meantime, these two men also came up to asking for overcharged, I was getting surprised, we got to talked in private n realized he was using that same same but different trick to them as well, so I walk to the couple who they are in my room, tell them what we just found, then they also found out they were paying for 4 dorm room, but got putting in 10 dorm in the end with the charging price still keeping as higher one 4.. The owner was excuses he wouldn't put any more guest inside to make it a 4 people dorm, the young couple were buying it for endding up the whole messed situation and at the end I was just able to get back my "missing 2000 n another prepaid bill 20k, all the rest is just end up as the owner started to avoid me n so this is kind of the end of this shitty story.
剪不清理還亂神經還驟斷的情況下,我叫他把監視器調出來看,他照著做了,因為我一直在櫃台邊的關係,開始有房客開始默默關注我們的動態(有人氣就有牆壁)他開了影片,我立馬衝到櫃台裡盯著銀幕看,果真,清楚地紀錄下我伸給他一張10萬的鈔票,而非他口中一張50k、一張20k的兩張共70k的鈔票,搖擺得意的扭頭過去大叫:你看,我給你一張10萬的同時發現他根本就沒在看;再跟他說一次剛剛顯示了我確實給你一張10萬鈔票之後,他竟然鬼打牆的接著照說你給我7萬。於是我們就這樣來來回回的重複著我倒轉影帶叫他看然後他硬是忙著用手摸一摸桌上的文件資料,裝著跟對面根本就沒人的空氣打招呼說嗨之下,整整五次,我重調給鬼看影帶。
講話的途中,另外兩個男生也臨櫃吵了他們也被多收錢的事情(瞬間覺得不對,所以我開始低聲錄影),然後馬上衝去跟另一對同房的情侶說情況,要他們確認他們的支付情況有無異狀,結果一問之下他們也立刻查帳發現他們當初訂的根本是四人房而非現在的十人房,價錢卻被照算四人間...短短的十分鐘,連我在內總共有五個人被憑空收費,你問我為何不喜歡東南亞,這就是為啥我討厭東南亞,你以為便宜耶賺到了,沒有!只要你離開啥都包好好的旅行團,你就會發現你何止被多收錢,還另外加上少於應有的對待。
Oh BTW, I changed to another hostel which is just about 230m away from it, instead of last hostel charged me 8500 kip per dollar (you still gotta pay in kip) they were giving me a much reasonable 8200 kip per dollar.
我最後有沒有拿回錢?沒有!
雖然真的很氣也很想叫警察,但是不說你不知道東南亞的警察又會是另一個故事的開端...
我終究離開了那青旅,多走了另外230米又進了另一間青旅,價錢一般般差不多也有附早餐,1美金的匯率也只算了高正常一點的8200,而不是前一間的8500。
Check the bill always, make sure you got your ticket, if anyone come ask you for what ever entrance fee, also make sure that ticket have been used meant they kept recycling the used one to gain some more pocket money.
有沒有影響我,有!
看我浪費了8個整個小時在這裡敲手機就是了。
你說我教你們要let go,
這就是我let go的方式,何況待會我要帶著Vodka去飲料攤叫她搖一搖水果之後順便加冰跟加酒。
You will get a loads more to learn, the world is big and you are just a kid. However do enjoy SEA, I don't too much because of the people, but I hope you do, with my full blessed.
你說東南亞究竟怎樣?
買單前查一下單、買票前看一下你跟誰買票,他的制服穿了沒、他的票給你了沒、你的票一拿到就已經打過洞撕過角了嗎?瞄一下當地人拿到的標準跟你拿到的標準是不是一樣;有些東西不知道比較好,知道了腦筋更糾結心理更難過- 我真心覺得很難過的是這個小小的東南亞是我旅行這麼長一路來第一次吧斷聽到許多旅人跟我分享他們經過這次的旅行後他們不會願意在在同個地區停留太久避免知道太多原本短呆不會發現的更深的另一面。
我曾經很喜歡一位土地藝術家說過的 “旅行,就是為了看見異同” 的這樣一句話,但是次時此景想到了這句美麗的話卻被賦予了另一種意義,總覺得心中有點不那麼甜的滋味。
我一個人旅行, 人對我而言的重要性真的更甚於景給我的震撼性;幾年下來的整體經歷我真的很訝異我對東南亞的低評價甚至更遜於中國的有錢說話跟德國的不關他的事!我不願跟你們承認我一路遇上的旅人們出乎意料的都轉換了他們來之前之後對東南亞的態度,但是我覺得我有必要說,有必要分享,誠如我一開頭就講的每個人的旅途不一樣,會經歷上的也不盡相同,如果能多點準備,就會少點中招跟多點對旅程上的感謝。
【環遊世界2804天】
黃色的旅行者 Yellow Tremper
-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-\-
#東南亞 #寮國 #很幹 #電腦趕快好
#SoloTraveler #3600DaysOnRoad #AStoryTeller #環遊世界3600天
#我一直在路上 #我一個人旅行 #有故事的女人
#這可以PO爆料嗎 #挺我就追蹤加入黃色大家庭
#FollowUpMyTrip #歡迎分享 #ShareIfLike
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