📜 [專欄新文章] Uniswap v3 Features Explained in Depth
✍️ 田少谷 Shao
📥 歡迎投稿: https://medium.com/taipei-ethereum-meetup #徵技術分享文 #使用心得 #教學文 #medium
Once again the game-changing DEX 🦄 👑
Image source: https://uniswap.org/blog/uniswap-v3/
Outline
0. Intro1. Uniswap & AMM recap2. Ticks 3. Concentrated liquidity4. Range orders: reversible limit orders5. Impacts of v36. Conclusion
0. Intro
The announcement of Uniswap v3 is no doubt one of the most exciting news in the DeFi place recently 🔥🔥🔥
While most have talked about the impact v3 can potentially bring on the market, seldom explain the delicate implementation techniques to realize all those amazing features, such as concentrated liquidity, limit-order-like range orders, etc.
Since I’ve covered Uniswap v1 & v2 (if you happen to know Mandarin, here are v1 & v2), there’s no reason for me to not cover v3 as well ✅
Thus, this article aims to guide readers through Uniswap v3, based on their official whitepaper and examples made on the announcement page. However, one needs not to be an engineer, as not many codes are involved, nor a math major, as the math involved is definitely taught in your high school, to fully understand the following content 😊😊😊
If you really make it through but still don’t get shxt, feedbacks are welcomed! 🙏
There should be another article focusing on the codebase, so stay tuned and let’s get started with some background noise!
1. Uniswap & AMM recap
Before diving in, we have to first recap the uniqueness of Uniswap and compare it to traditional order book exchanges.
Uniswap v1 & v2 are a kind of AMMs (automated market marker) that follow the constant product equation x * y = k, with x & y stand for the amount of two tokens X and Y in a pool and k as a constant.
Comparing to order book exchanges, AMMs, such as the previous versions of Uniswap, offer quite a distinct user experience:
AMMs have pricing functions that offer the price for the two tokens, which make their users always price takers, while users of order book exchanges can be both makers or takers.
Uniswap as well as most AMMs have infinite liquidity¹, while order book exchanges don’t. The liquidity of Uniswap v1 & v2 is provided throughout the price range [0,∞]².
Uniswap as well as most AMMs have price slippage³ and it’s due to the pricing function, while there isn’t always price slippage on order book exchanges as long as an order is fulfilled within one tick.
In an order book, each price (whether in green or red) is a tick. Image source: https://ftx.com/trade/BTC-PERP
¹ though the price gets worse over time; AMM of constant sum such as mStable does not have infinite liquidity
² the range is in fact [-∞,∞], while a price in most cases won’t be negative
³ AMM of constant sum does not have price slippage
2. Tick
The whole innovation of Uniswap v3 starts from ticks.
For those unfamiliar with what is a tick:
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tick.asp
By slicing the price range [0,∞] into numerous granular ticks, trading on v3 is highly similar to trading on order book exchanges, with only three differences:
The price range of each tick is predefined by the system instead of being proposed by users.
Trades that happen within a tick still follows the pricing function of the AMM, while the equation has to be updated once the price crosses the tick.
Orders can be executed with any price within the price range, instead of being fulfilled at the same one price on order book exchanges.
With the tick design, Uniswap v3 possesses most of the merits of both AMM and an order book exchange! 💯💯💯
So, how is the price range of a tick decided?
This question is actually somewhat related to the tick explanation above: the minimum tick size for stocks trading above 1$ is one cent.
The underlying meaning of a tick size traditionally being one cent is that one cent (1% of 1$) is the basis point of price changes between ticks, ex: 1.02 — 1.01 = 0.1.
Uniswap v3 employs a similar idea: compared to the previous/next price, the price change should always be 0.01% = 1 basis point.
However, notice the difference is that in the traditional basis point, the price change is defined with subtraction, while here in Uniswap it’s division.
This is how price ranges of ticks are decided⁴:
Image source: https://uniswap.org/whitepaper-v3.pdf
With the above equation, the tick/price range can be recorded in the index form [i, i+1], instead of some crazy numbers such as 1.0001¹⁰⁰ = 1.0100496621.
As each price is the multiplication of 1.0001 of the previous price, the price change is always 1.0001 — 1 = 0.0001 = 0.01%.
For example, when i=1, p(1) = 1.0001; when i=2, p(2) = 1.00020001.
p(2) / p(1) = 1.00020001 / 1.0001 = 1.0001
See the connection between the traditional basis point 1 cent (=1% of 1$) and Uniswap v3’s basis point 0.01%?
Image source: https://tenor.com/view/coin-master-cool-gif-19748052
But sir, are prices really granular enough? There are many shitcoins with prices less than 0.000001$. Will such prices be covered as well?
Price range: max & min
To know if an extremely small price is covered or not, we have to figure out the max & min price range of v3 by looking into the spec: there is a int24 tick state variable in UniswapV3Pool.sol.
Image source: https://uniswap.org/whitepaper-v3.pdf
The reason for a signed integer int instead of an uint is that negative power represents prices less than 1 but greater than 0.
24 bits can cover the range between 1.0001 ^ (2²³ — 1) and 1.0001 ^ -(2)²³. Even Google cannot calculate such numbers, so allow me to offer smaller values to have a rough idea of the whole price range:
1.0001 ^ (2¹⁸) = 242,214,459,604.341
1.0001 ^ -(2¹⁷) = 0.000002031888943
I think it’s safe to say that with a int24 the range can cover > 99.99% of the prices of all assets in the universe 👌
⁴ For implementation concern, however, a square root is added to both sides of the equation.
How about finding out which tick does a price belong to?
Tick index from price
The answer to this question is rather easy, as we know that p(i) = 1.0001^i, simply takes a log with base 1.0001 on both sides of the equation⁴:
Image source: https://www.codecogs.com/latex/eqneditor.php
Let’s try this out, say we wanna find out the tick index of 1000000.
Image source: https://ncalculators.com/number-conversion/log-logarithm-calculator.htm
Now, 1.0001¹³⁸¹⁶² = 999,998.678087146. Voila!
⁵ This formula is also slightly modified to fit the real implementation usage.
3. Concentrated liquidity
Now that we know how ticks and price ranges are decided, let’s talk about how orders are executed in a tick, what is concentrated liquidity and how it enables v3 to compete with stablecoin-specialized DEXs (decentralized exchange), such as Curve, by improving the capital efficiency.
Concentrated liquidity means LPs (liquidity providers) can provide liquidity to any price range/tick at their wish, which causes the liquidity to be imbalanced in ticks.
As each tick has a different liquidity depth, the corresponding pricing function x * y = k also won’t be the same!
Each tick has its own liquidity depth. Image source: https://uniswap.org/blog/uniswap-v3/
Mmm… examples are always helpful for abstract descriptions 😂
Say the original pricing function is 100(x) * 1000(y) = 100000(k), with the price of X token 1000 / 100 = 10 and we’re now in the price range [9.08, 11.08].
If the liquidity of the price range [11.08, 13.08] is the same as [9.08, 11.08], we don’t have to modify the pricing function if the price goes from 10 to 11.08, which is the boundary between two ticks.
The price of X is 1052.63 / 95 = 11.08 when the equation is 1052.63 * 95 = 100000.
However, if the liquidity of the price range [11.08, 13.08] is two times that of the current range [9.08, 11.08], balances of x and y should be doubled, which makes the equation become 2105.26 * 220 = 400000, which is (1052.63 * 2) * (110 * 2) = (100000 * 2 * 2).
We can observe the following two points from the above example:
Trades always follow the pricing function x * y = k, while once the price crosses the current price range/tick, the liquidity/equation has to be updated.
√(x * y) = √k = L is how we represent the liquidity, as I say the liquidity of x * y = 400000 is two times the liquidity of x * y = 100000, as √(400000 / 100000) = 2.
What’s more, compared to liquidity on v1 & v2 is always spread across [0,∞], liquidity on v3 can be concentrated within certain price ranges and thus results in higher capital efficiency from traders’ swapping fees!
Let’s say if I provide liquidity in the range [1200, 2800], the capital efficiency will then be 4.24x higher than v2 with the range [0,∞] 😮😮😮 There’s a capital efficiency comparison calculator, make sure to try it out!
Image source: https://uniswap.org/blog/uniswap-v3/
It’s worth noticing that the concept of concentrated liquidity was proposed and already implemented by Kyper, prior to Uniswap, which is called Automated Price Reserve in their case.⁵
⁶ Thanks to Yenwen Feng for the information.
4. Range orders: reversible limit orders
As explained in the above section, LPs of v3 can provide liquidity to any price range/tick at their wish. Depending on the current price and the targeted price range, there are three scenarios:
current price < the targeted price range
current price > the targeted price range
current price belongs to the targeted price range
The first two scenarios are called range orders. They have unique characteristics and are essentially fee-earning reversible limit orders, which will be explained later.
The last case is the exact same liquidity providing mechanism as the previous versions: LPs provide liquidity in both tokens of the same value (= amount * price).
There’s also an identical product to the case: grid trading, a very powerful investment tool for a time of consolidation. Dunno what’s grid trading? Check out Binance’s explanation on this, as this topic won’t be covered!
In fact, LPs of Uniswap v1 & v2 are grid trading with a range of [0,∞] and the entry price as the baseline.
Range orders
To understand range orders, we’d have to first revisit how price is discovered on Uniswap with the equation x * y = k, for x & y stand for the amount of two tokens X and Y and k as a constant.
The price of X compared to Y is y / x, which means how many Y one can get for 1 unit of X, and vice versa the price of Y compared to X is x / y.
For the price of X to go up, y has to increase and x decrease.
With this pricing mechanism in mind, it’s example time!
Say an LP plans to place liquidity in the price range [15.625, 17.313], higher than the current price of X 10, when 100(x) * 1000(y) = 100000(k).
The price of X is 1250 / 80 = 15.625 when the equation is 80 * 1250 = 100000.
The price of X is 1315.789 / 76 = 17.313 when the equation is 76 * 1315.789 = 100000.
If now the price of X reaches 15.625, the only way for the price of X to go even higher is to further increase y and decrease x, which means exchanging a certain amount of X for Y.
Thus, to provide liquidity in the range [15.625, 17.313], an LP needs only to prepare 80 — 76 = 4 of X. If the price exceeds 17.313, all 4 X of the LP is swapped into 1315.789 — 1250 = 65.798 Y, and then the LP has nothing more to do with the pool, as his/her liquidity is drained.
What if the price stays in the range? It’s exactly what LPs would love to see, as they can earn swapping fees for all transactions in the range! Also, the balance of X will swing between [76, 80] and the balance of Y between [1250, 1315.789].
This might not be obvious, but the example above shows an interesting insight: if the liquidity of one token is provided, only when the token becomes more valuable will it be exchanged for the less valuable one.
…wut? 🤔
Remember that if 4 X is provided within [15.625, 17.313], only when the price of X goes up from 15.625 to 17.313 is 4 X gradually swapped into Y, the less valuable one!
What if the price of X drops back immediately after reaching 17.313? As X becomes less valuable, others are going to exchange Y for X.
The below image illustrates the scenario of DAI/USDC pair with a price range of [1.001, 1.002] well: the pool is always composed entirely of one token on both sides of the tick, while in the middle 1.001499⁶ is of both tokens.
Image source: https://uniswap.org/blog/uniswap-v3/
Similarly, to provide liquidity in a price range < current price, an LP has to prepare a certain amount of Y for others to exchange Y for X within the range.
To wrap up such an interesting feature, we know that:
Only one token is required for range orders.
Only when the current price is within the range of the range order can LP earn trading fees. This is the main reason why most people believe LPs of v3 have to monitor the price more actively to maximize their income, which also means that LPs of v3 have become arbitrageurs 🤯
I will be discussing more the impacts of v3 in 5. Impacts of v3.
⁷ 1.001499988 = √(1.0001 * 1.0002) is the geometric mean of 1.0001 and 1.0002. The implication is that the geometric mean of two prices is the average execution price within the range of the two prices.
Reversible limit orders
As the example in the last section demonstrates, if there is 4 X in range [15.625, 17.313], the 4 X will be completely converted into 65.798 Y when the price goes over 17.313.
We all know that a price can stay in a wide range such as [10, 11] for quite some time, while it’s unlikely so in a narrow range such as [15.625, 15.626].
Thus, if an LP provides liquidity in [15.625, 15.626], we can expect that once the price of X goes over 15.625 and immediately also 15.626, and does not drop back, all X are then forever converted into Y.
The concept of having a targeted price and the order will be executed after the price is crossed is exactly the concept of limit orders! The only difference is that if the range of a range order is not narrow enough, it’s highly possible that the conversion of tokens will be reverted once the price falls back to the range.
As price ranges follow the equation p(i) = 1.0001 ^ i, the range can be quite narrow and a range order can thus effectively serve as a limit order:
When i = 27490, 1.0001²⁷⁴⁹⁰ = 15.6248.⁸
When i = 27491, 1.0001²⁷⁴⁹¹ = 15.6264.⁸
A range of 0.0016 is not THAT narrow but can certainly satisfy most limit order use cases!
⁸ As mentioned previously in note #4, there is a square root in the equation of the price and index, thus the numbers here are for explantion only.
5. Impacts of v3
Higher capital efficiency, LPs become arbitrageurs… as v3 has made tons of radical changes, I’d like to summarize my personal takes of the impacts of v3:
Higher capital efficiency makes one of the most frequently considered indices in DeFi: TVL, total value locked, becomes less meaningful, as 1$ on Uniswap v3 might have the same effect as 100$ or even 2000$ on v2.
The ease of spot exchanging between spot exchanges used to be a huge advantage of spot markets over derivative markets. As LPs will take up the role of arbitrageurs and arbitraging is more likely to happen on v3 itself other than between DEXs, this gap is narrowed … to what extent? No idea though.
LP strategies and the aggregation of NFT of Uniswap v3 liquidity token are becoming the blue ocean for new DeFi startups: see Visor and Lixir. In fact, this might be the turning point for both DeFi and NFT: the two main reasons of blockchain going mainstream now come to the alignment of interest: solving the $$ problem 😏😏😏
In the right venue, which means a place where transaction fees are low enough, such as Optimism, we might see Algo trading firms coming in to share the market of designing LP strategies on Uniswap v3, as I believe Algo trading is way stronger than on-chain strategies or DAO voting to add liquidity that sort of thing.
After reading this article by Parsec.finance: The Dex to Rule Them All, I cannot help but wonder: maybe there is going to be centralized crypto exchanges adopting v3’s approach. The reason is that since orders of LPs in the same tick are executed pro-rata, the endless front-running speeding-competition issue in the Algo trading world, to some degree, is… solved? 🤔
Anyway, personal opinions can be biased and seriously wrong 🙈 I’m merely throwing out a sprat to catch a whale. Having a different voice? Leave your comment down below!
6. Conclusion
That was kinda tough, isn’t it? Glad you make it through here 🥂🥂🥂
There are actually many more details and also a huge section of Oracle yet to be covered. However, since this article is more about features and targeting normal DeFi users, I’ll leave those to the next one; hope there is one 😅
If you have any doubt or find any mistake, please feel free to reach out to me and I’d try to reply AFAP!
Stay tuned and in the meantime let’s wait and see how Uniswap v3 is again pioneering the innovation of DeFi 🌟
Uniswap v3 Features Explained in Depth was originally published in Taipei Ethereum Meetup on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
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光專輯合作陣容一字排開就夠讓人嚇人了,為了完成亞洲通系列最終章《亞洲通才》的致敬概念!搖滾、雷鬼、中國風、寶萊塢、饒舌、流行、抒情、電音、廣high等無數的音樂曲風;取樣、吉他、古樂器、甚至熱巴那手大鼓、沙貝琴、西塔琴等無數的樂器元素,黃明志將上述的音樂風格和音色大膽玩弄掌間、互相揉合,每首歌在詞曲、編曲、製作到音樂錄影帶拍攝,他都有著無限的靈感與點子!黃明志說:「這是我花最長時間、最投入、最激發創意的一張音樂作品了!」
以講求完美個性著稱的黃明志,在製作《亞洲通才》這張「致敬」專輯的過程中,常為了一個當時很經典的音色,花好幾個星期、聽好幾千個不同的音色庫、不斷想辦法詢問當年的音樂製作人或編曲師,才終於完成「致敬」的第一步:找到音色。接著又開始與編曲一同興奮討論,要怎麼將這個音色與其他現代音樂元素和音樂曲式互相結合,保留該時代的感動,同時締造新時代的意義。每一首音樂作品都花了難以想像的心血與時間,才終於創作出這張令人讚嘆不已、既復古又前衛的嶄新「致敬」概念專輯《亞洲通才》!
要「致敬」不難,要「模仿」也很簡單,但如何把對音樂最大的愛,展現在對無數也曾這樣愛著音樂的經典音樂人、他們所創造的音樂時代上,這絕不是件容易的事。從學生時代黃明志帶著一個背包窮遊亞洲各國,在不知多少個窮困潦倒的夜晚,聽著這一首首經典歌曲,想著這些充滿才華的音樂人,拿起吉他彈到破皮,一首一首地寫下去,只希望有一天能成為他們的一份子。而在經過金曲獎多次的肯定後,黃明志終於在音樂上找回熱情、感動與敬意。
2020 是全球因疫情而陷入絕望的一年,但黃明志回到自己對音樂最「粗」的熱情,最「深」的感動,和最「大」的敬意,邀請了無數亞洲重要的音樂人與各領域工作者,挑戰種種極端而不可能的工作模式,耗費幾萬小時的努力,終於完成了“亞洲通”系列的最終也是最重要的一張專輯《亞洲通才》。
「通才」二字,泛指什麼都會的人才,黃明志一直相信每一個人都有獨特的才華跟天份,不論是很會演戲的影帝、讓人們開心的AV 女優、努力練習的辣妹舞者,只要願意努力,都能在各自的領域中發揮驚人的才華!以「想要跟亞洲各個有才華的人們一起合作」為出發,不論國家、地區、思想、語言、政治、種族和文化,只用初衷、熱情、執著、努力、合作和感動去完成,這就是《亞洲通才》這張專輯。
聽完這張專輯,如果你也有那麼一點被觸動,如果你也開始想努力些什麼。那麼,這張集結亞洲各國許多人們的才華而完成的《亞洲通才》專輯,僅獻給你那份也許還不為人所知的---才華。
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《Asian Polymath》 Music Album Introduction
Asian Polymath is the biggest project Namewee has ever put on, the wholly self-written album transcends the concepts of time and dimensions, it reimagines the afterlife and bestows a whole new meaning for life and death. Asian Polymath is a cognition collectives of all the previous albums, it congregates the essence from the last generation’s works. Asian Polymath is a wish from the author to honor the greats.
From 10,000 Reasons To Make Me Happy, Stop Clubbing, Our Love Is Over, Beyond The Edge and Five Hundred. These very Namewee-ish song titles have definitely got people to burst into laughters and their interest piqued. However when it comes to ‘Honoring’, the word has put Namewee into serious thoughts. To hammer the album into perfection, Namewee has had a few excursions to countries and places such as Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Malaysia and India’s Bollywood. Through his research and mid-night grinding, he discovered the musical element which could have an ever-lasting impact on a culture’s growth. By utilizing the historical sampling and referencing techniques, Namewee inducted the element into his most recent works to woo the industry once again.
As the opening title, China Reggaeton fuses the Chinese sound with Reggae to create a unique blend of flavours yet what attracts most is the fact that Anthony Perry, the HKFA laureate being invited to feature in the song. Beyond The Edge is a song which the Hong Kong people love the most, Fu Jiu from China has a voice that strongly resembles the legendary rock band main vocals from Hong Kong – Beyond, hats off to the legends! Canon Rock 2020 is blessed to feature the song’s original creator – JerryC, the song commemorates the first wave YouTube content creators and a backstory of how Namewee rose to prominence. I Shot You shows that Namewee has limitless creativity, he wants to honour the Adult Video actresses and particularly JAV for accompanying him during his loneliest hours. Besides that, the appearance of Yua Mikami has garnered the music video a lot of unwanted attention. Do you still remember the 90s retro disco music? Stop Clubbing is a song that discourages young adults to go to such places. Head figure of Taiwan’s EDM, DJ Jerry collaborates with Namewee to rewind time back to the 90s happiest hours.
To complete the Asian Polymath formula, the finale of the ‘Asia’ albums. Unprecedented guest invitations and collaborations in the album far exceeds the industry’s common standard, in addition to the vast music genres such as Rock,R&B, Rap, Reggae, Ancient Chinese, Hindustani, Modern Pop, EDM and Disco. Nonetheless, sampling techniques, piano, guitars and strings, ancient instruments, Kompang, Sitar, Sape and countless instruments were used. Namewee greatly expanded the instrument capabilities and infused them with his creativity. During each stage of the process, the artiste was always brimming with ideas, the artist even exclaimed: ‘This project has my brain wrenched! My most time-consuming project ever!’
As a perfectionist, Namewee would always need to delve into his massive sound libraries to rummage a voicing that could match the corresponding time period, sometimes it could take weeks to filter a suitable candidate. Namewee would even go to the extreme by attempting to contact the original song producer to locate the most accurate sound but that’s just the first baby footsteps. Then, he would discuss with his arranger for ways to make the sound more modern, to fit the old blood in a new body. Asian Polymath is amazing for its preservation of the retro elements but still modern sounding aspect.
To differ ‘Honouring’ and ‘Imitating’ has its difficulties, the fine line between the 2 is ambivalent and blurry. Hence, Namewee has his own answer to such a question, he believes that by paying homage to the classics, their people and legacies would be the huge difference maker. Long story short, Namewee was already a backpacker in his college years, while he was travelling with a very tight budget in Asia, it was the classics that kept reminding him to be diligent and stoic.
The Corona-pandemic has ravaged 2020 into pieces, many were despair and despondent but Namewee persevered, thus giving birth to Asian Polymath. The word ‘Polymath’ means a person who possesses wide knowledge and talent, Namewee believes that everyone is born with talent yet true success is only granted to the most hardworking genius. Asian Polymath is Namewee’s desire for working with every talented person he came across in Asia, with burning passion comes unparalleled talent, that’s the last calling of Asian Polymath.
#黃明志 #Namewee #亞洲通才 #AsianPolymath
log formula 在 君子馬蘭頭 - Ivan Li 李聲揚 Facebook 的最讚貼文
[繼續鞭屍]你見過 2-7 ?你講大話。四萬場都冇一場
上篇文講返熱刺2-拜仁7 嗰場波,可以睇返舊文(http://bit.ly/35gDJoH),但其實舊文係配菜,你甚至可以唔睇。呢篇先係主角,你可以完全唔使理場波發生咩事,你知道德甲嘅拜仁慕尼黑作客大炒英超熱刺7 — 2就得。而足球比數當然主隊為先,所以賽果係2 — 7。
其實我都係想講個主題,呢場波,有今生,冇來世。你真係睇過2—7?
點解咁講?因為你可以諗下。真係撫心自問諗下,唔好出術,唔好Google
你咁大個仔有冇睇過一場波係2 — 7?任何一場。過去幾十年,有冇見過咁嘅比數?你真係有?
唔好計打機呀,睇港超呀(sorry)之類。我地講,歐洲頂級(任你四大五大定六大)聯賽,包埋世界盃,歐洲國家盃,歐聯,歐霸,夠老嘅包埋以前盃賽冠軍盃。你有冇見過一場波係2 — 7?
呢個亦係名記者/作家 Michael Cox嘅問題。佢話,佢睇咗咁多年波(我其實唔知佢幾大,但斷估唔會係廿歲出頭),都冇見過一個咁嘅比數。你地有冇人真係見過2—7?
然後好多人回(證明好多盲毛),有呀,見過入8球。係,我都見過。甚至有人見過7 — 2。但,Michael Cox強調,係2 — 7。唔要多唔要少。仲要係主隊2作客7,你有冇見過?
你呢?
聽落,好似唔係咁罕見。一季英超380場波,你計五大聯賽,加埋歐聯,一季加埋近2000場,世界盃之類豪畀你。計你三十幾四十歲,睇咗廿年波,即係40,000場波起碼。冇計埋足總盃呀外圍賽嗰啲。當然你唔會睇得晒40,000場,但個universe咁大,總會有一場?
40,000場都唔開一場2—7?答案就係,一場都冇
其他人舉得出嘅例子,全部都係其他啲非頂級聯賽。勉強最尾一場叫歐聯外圍賽。但你真係睇過?
呢個先係我篇文想講嘅嘢:盲點。一般人應該估唔到,係40,000場都冇一場咁嘅波。
咁我嘅另一問題係,呢個波膽,賠率應該幾多?
實際上大家都知,呢個波膽叫做客其他,撈埋入其他嘢度。但當我有間公司,畀你買晒每一個比數,呢個2 — 7波膽,應該幾多倍?
大家都知道仲有其他嘢影響,又要睇邊邊多人買之類,博彩公司又要賺錢,又可以射盤去其他公司。但,在好理想嘅情況下,即係等於讀物理嘅無磨擦力下,假設博彩公司冇成本又唔使賺錢下,個賠率,至少初盤,咪反映返贏嘅機會
講再簡單啲,你擲一粒骰仔,買6,應該賠6倍,因為係6份1機會(有啲煩膠堅持六面唔同重量,慢慢玩。正如公字都唔係一半半,有一邊重啲)。買出雙數,應該賠2倍,因為2份1機會。(不過玩魚蝦蟹唔同,就算HOUSE RULE都係,記住係做莊必勝的,下年記住爭住做,我會開篇新文講點解)
等於你去馬會買入球單雙數,都係2倍左右。原因亦係因為差不多2份1機會。不過留意,首先馬會要賺錢,所以兩個賠率都低過2倍。第二,雙數賠率係低過單數,因為入球雙數係開得多過單數。都好易理解,因為和波必然係雙數。
同埋道理,呢個2 — 7波膽,其實應該係40,000倍以上的。因為真係40,000場冇見過 ,雖然我唔知會唔會之後阿積士就作客大炒華倫西亞7 — 2(結果冇)。同埋唔好忘記,2 — 7波膽,40,000場都冇一次。你仲要買佢出現在熱刺身上,歐聯亞軍噃大佬。all due respect,60,000倍唔過份(當然,又要計返對手係拜仁)。即係你話巴西主辦世界盃在主場畀人炒1—7咁過份喎(而其實,1-7嘅波膽常見好多)。
但,我估你去叫人估,就一定唔會估到咁罕有。可能幾百倍已經覺得好抵。而忽略咗你買緊係幾萬場都冇出現過嘅嘢。
點解有呢種誤判?唔係個別人戇鳩或乜,呢啲又係同人性有關。
簡單嚟講,呢啲就係Fat Tail Risk。唔想乜都又講黑天鵝,但人(人類in general)係潛意識,系統性地低估咗極端事件嘅可能性。呢個同本能天性有關,亦都同我地一路嘅學術發展有關(http://bit.ly/2OoBPfB)
例如股票,或者股票指數(不過係一堆股票啫)。舊文有啲學術,但寫過,N咁多嘅股票數學模型,其實都係幾化學,基於常態分佈,Normal Distribution,bell shaped 。(http://bit.ly/2otY8p9)
你會話,股價係撚Normal Distribution。當然唔係,有樣嘢叫通脹,股價亦唔會變到負數。係話股票嘅回報係Normal Distribution,所以股價係log normal distribution (所以呢,識得log,生活係會好啲的)
有啲深,但非數撚都聽過Black Scholes Formula,幫你啲期權定價。呢啲公式,以及眾多金融數學嘅公式,都係基於log normal distribution。
原因?好簡單,靚,易計。缺點?靚咪有缺憾,咁話得model就梗係唔係完全同現實一樣。但Normal Distribution太深入民心,太靚,又易明,數學上亦都易處理。所以好多東西用咗佢你都唔知,潛移默化晒.
(反正你都睇唔到條式,但想講呢張10蚊德國馬克,上面正係印住Normal Distribution條線,條式,同埋條友。英國教授話德國佬真係堅,印條式在銀紙上面)(彩蛋留意埋條友,數學王子高斯,個名,係Gauß,德文獨有嘅字母,羅馬字母會變成ss)
咁會點影響我地去睇呢個世界?其中一個問題就係,fat tail,長尾。實證見到,股災,係比log normal distribution預計嘅,更常見。
咁所以,就有啲天才(真天才),可以借呢啲嘢搵食。Black Scholes Formula去計期權價,一般都OK- until not OK.每逢大升大跌,就會有錯價,就可以搵到食。
咁又所以,有電腦病毒就有防毒軟件(其實係掉轉),有fat tail risk,就會有人去特登人手去修正。Extreme Value Theory是也。特登研究啲百年一遇千年一遇嘅shock。
當年我讀個濕鳩Master都有玩呢啲嘢(我其實都有上過下堂的),導師就有講,拿,荷蘭在呢方面係先驅呀。點解?荷蘭多flooding咯。股災咪等於氾濫,你咪要計下個圍牆各樣嘢起幾多,要防幾多年一遇咯。太低嘅會出事,但太高又不切實際又嘥料。
順帶一提,該人正係荷蘭佬,而我仲同佢在Warwick一齊睇2002嘅世界盃外圍賽。拿,呢場波經典呀,正係雲戈爾教荷蘭,作客愛爾蘭,「四鬼拍門」四前鋒嗰場(小測驗:邊四鬼?)。
雲戈爾一貫佢串爆本色,話隊波勁撚到愛爾蘭球迷都想佢地晉級。結果愛爾蘭踢少個都贏,仲將荷蘭提前兩輪踢出局,無緣世界盃。荷蘭佬就同我講他朝君體也相同 ,今晚就到德國 。果然荷蘭人最想德國死— 結果嗰晚就到德國主場畀英格蘭大炒5–1!你可以查返,係同一日的。但放心,德國都仲入到決賽周,拎亞軍添,後話。
都係想講嘅係,搵食,就一定睇呢啲rare event.問球迷問賭仔,估賠率(其實大約即係估機會率),有經驗嘅去估,唔會爭好遠。例如佢唔會估英格蘭捧下屆世界盃係50倍,亦唔會估1.5倍。但,叫估2–7波膽,就可以爭好遠。可能有人以為幾百倍,比到盡兩千倍 — 但其實,40,000倍都嫌少
當然同講股災有啲唔同。股災就係講極端畀你想像中常見,買2—7就係極端畀你想像中少見—但結論都係你輸錢。所以嚴格嚟講,2—7係thin tail(或者,肥瘦,只係視乎你係莊定閒)
log formula 在 Tess Chung Youtube 的精選貼文
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喜歡這個影片嗎?看看上一個類似主題的影片
https://youtu.be/qALCa7nHOp8
還是不確定Natasha Denona這5000元到底值不值得花...讓我再多試用一下再給大家完整的心得+刷色!影片還是可以看到出來顯色度跟質感跟wet n wild當然還是有差,刷在手上不是一樣的顏色,但上眼皮相似度比較高!
雖然wet n wild要花很多時間堆疊,但4色NT129我對它要求當然不高,如果這盤配色不吸引你,要求比較高,可以直接跳過!不沾濕使用,亮面還蠻無感的!應該在影片有看到那個深藍亮面色沾濕一開始做一些奇怪的事,但堆疊後結果我是喜歡的!喜歡配色個人覺得4色NT129是很ok!
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log formula 在 VICTORIA LOI Youtube 的精選貼文
SHE'S TWENTY- TWENTY- TWENTY- ONE NOW!
As of March 7th, 2017, I officially joined the ranks of adulthood by turning 21. But to be quite honest, it doesn't feel any different than before. Perhaps it's because I'm not too keen on the party life, or maybe perhaps I imagined my 21st birthday in the stereotypical "Vegas" way. Regardless, I had a lovely birthday spent with friends, family, and loved ones!
Thank you so much to Tommy, Stephy, Danny, Gorden, Randy, Jae, Formula Arts, & The Eat Show team for making this video and photoshoot possibly!
It was such a fun, creative project. And what better song to do than Dean's "21"? Cause ... ya know ... you only turn 21 once? LOL
Anyways ... thank you all, my vitamins, for sticking with me!
I know I've been lagging. /sigh
The struggle is real.
Always, Vi ( ˘ ³˘)❤
FORMULA ARTS
https://www.youtube.com/user/FormulaArtsMedia
STAY IN TOUCH
★ Blog → http://www.ohviposh.com
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★ Twitter → http://twitter.com/ohviposh
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★ Snapchat → VictoriaLoi
MUSIC
● Dean | 21
log formula 在 賭Sir【杜氏數學】HermanToMath Youtube 的最佳解答
杜氏數學 官方網站: http://www.HermanToMath.com
賭Sir 幫你急救 DSE 數學: https://HermanToMath.skx.io
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?️賭Sir是杜氏數學Herman To Math的始創人
?全港唯一「完爆」【DSE Core+M1+M2】、【IAL 12科Maths】、【AL Pure+Applied】、【CE Maths+A.Maths】的數學導師
?全港第一最多訂閱粉絲的數學教育YouTuber
?YouTube觀看次數超越700萬、訂閱粉絲超過50000人
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杜氏數學 國際官方網站 http://www.hermantomath.com
DSE 數學【速效課程】 訂購詳情 http://hermantomath.skx.io
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#隱藏公式 #Incenter #內心
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精選系列節錄:
《數學 DSE 狀元神技秘笈》系列
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mVTS...
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9lM-...
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UY8px...
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杜氏數學 Herman To Math 考試戰績:
A ── 會考 Math 數學
A ── 會考 Additional Math 附加數學
A ── 高考 Pure Math 純粹數學
A ── 高考 Applied Math 應用數學
5** ── DSE Math 數學
5** ── DSE M1 數學延伸部分(一)
5** ── DSE M2 數學延伸部分(二)
A ── IAL Core Math 1 2
A ── IAL Core Math 3 4
A ── IAL Further Pure Math 1
A ── IAL Mechanics 2
A ── IAL Mechanics 3
A ── IAL Statistics 1
A ── IAL Statistics 2
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