🌻
最近有很多法人舉辦科技方面的會議, 會在會議中訪問上市公司的高層. 可以到Seeking Alpha上面看一下訪問內容.
--DA Davidson’s 19th Annual & Software Internet Conference on September 9th
--Citi’s 2020 Global Technology Conference on September 10th
--Deutsche Bank Technology Conference on September 14
--Jefferies Virtual Software Conference on September 15
我快快地看了兩份(Docusign(DOCU)還有Crowdstrike(CRWD)), 也把重點劃了出來(並沒有翻譯成中文就是, 也沒有濃縮.) 有興趣的可以到部落格那邊的個股專屬標籤去找檔案.
DOCU: CEO有提到TAM, 市佔, 競爭環境, 國際發展.
CRWD: CFO專訪. 可以看競爭對手的狀態, 還有他們的業務模式. 感覺起來他們未來會切入OKTA這些公司的市場(做identity的.)
🌻FedEx(FDX)聯邦快遞財報
聯邦快遞上季每日陸運包裹量增31%至1,160萬件,帶動獲利勁增逾60%。
聯邦快遞營運長蘇布拉瑪尼亞說:「我們預計三到五年內看到的增長幅度,大約在三到五個月就達成。」
以上文字來源:
https://udn.com/news/story/6811/4866362
執行副總裁兼行銷和傳播長卡瑞爾(Brie Carere)表示,大型包裹、傢俱與高價位電子商品的配送到府業務量增加。她也說,超過65歲的消費者「終於上網」並且「從電子商務角度來看,我不認為(疫情結束後)這些購買行為會恢復到以往的狀態」。
以上文字來源: https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E5%8F%97%E6%83%A0%E6%96%BC%E7%96%AB%E6%83%85%E5%AE%85%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F-%E8%81%AF%E9%82%A6%E5%BF%AB%E9%81%9E%E7%8D%B2%E5%88%A9%E9%A3%86%E5%8D%87-084745880.html
以下是財報內容中, 值得注意的幾段. 可以看到, 電商有加速發展, 而消費者本來花在服務業上的費用, 有轉移到物品(goods)的現象.
"The second and perhaps more profound trend is the acceleration of ecommerce. Pre-COVID, we projected that the U.S. domestic market would hit a 100 million packages per day by calendar year 2026. We now project that the U.S. domestic parcel market will hit this mark by calendar year 2023 pulling volume projections forward by three years from the previous expectation."
"Ecommerce fueled substantially by this pandemic is driving the extraordinary growth. In fact 96% of the U.S. growth is expected to come from ecommerce. While ecommerce as a percentage of total retail has declined from its apex in April, it remains elevated. Ecommerce as a percentage of total retail for Q2 calendar year 2020 is estimated at 21% compared to 15% in Q2 calendar year 2019."
"In the U.S., spending that would normally have gone into services has shifted towards goods with goods spending boosted further by pent-up demand. Retail sales are growing again year-over-year and ecommerce is building at holiday levels and of course, more to come on that in a moment. The service sector is severely impacted by the pandemic and higher employment rates continues to weigh on growth."
u.s. bank 中文 在 陳冠廷 Kuan-Ting Chen Facebook 的最佳解答
I have recently perused Nicholas Kristof’s NYT piece “China’s Man in Washington, Named Trump”(https://nyti.ms/3h2JXh8). One paragraph in particular caught my attention: “A joke in China suggests that Trump’s Chinese name is Chuan Jianguo, or “Build-the-Country Trump.” That’s because Build-the-Country is a common revolutionary name among Communist patriots, and it’s mockingly suggested that Trump’s misrule of the United States is actually bolstering Xi’s regime.”
Kristoff also avows that since Trump’s ascension to presidency, the American nation became highly polarized. This is reflected in the current administration’s policies on climate change, foreign relations with established U.S. allies, and COVID-19 prevention, all of which are rather ineffective. It also seems like Mr. Trump and his team diverged from the traditional priorities, including promoting free trade, human rights, and other quintessentially American values. As described thoroughly by John Bolton, all these factors contributed to the declining standing of the U.S. in global politics.
What is more, many people fall prey to CCP’s propaganda and its interpretations of Trump’s actions, which only enhances China’s reputation.
But that might not exactly be the case.
The CCP apparently failed to utilize the window of opportunity created by the ineptness of the Trump administration, as China could have grown to the position of a leader by filling in the void left by the U.S.
During the 2016 APEC Ministerial Meeting in Lima, Peru, Xi Jinping and his team actively supported the plans to establish the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and a Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific, or FTAAP. In contrast, the United States withdrew its signature from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in early 2017. Coupled with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB), this move bolstered China’s capacity to influence global investments and trade, high-tech mergers and acquisitions, and, overall, expand its geostrategic influence on the entire globe.
At the same time, various propaganda films about great power competition, military industry, and science and technology surged all at once, and gained remarkable following around the world.
All this provided a window of opportunity for the CCP to slowly change its course. Around the same time, the distrust for POTUS among U.S. allies’ reached its apex. According to polls conducted by the Pew Research Center, the distrust for the U.S. president in the U.K. reached 75%, 72% in Japan, 70% in Australia, and stunning 86% in France.
Had the C.C.P,. begun to open up at that time, or at least resumed the governance style of the Hu-Wen administration, it could have reaped the benefits of promoting liberalism where the U.S. failed to deliver. It was the time for Beijing to gradually enhance freedom of speech domestically, pursue sustainable infrastructural projects, gradually reform unfair barriers to trade, transform its S.O.E.s, strengthen protections for private ownership, and vitalize its start-ups and enterprises.
Moreover, were China to cease the genocide in East Turkestan and refrain from cracking down on Hong Kong's semi-autonomy, it would have greatly enhanced its global international image. Additionally, if paired with slow but steady reforms, Beijing’s respect for sovereignty of its peoples would have attracted a large amount of foreign investment, which in turn would have continued to buttress the country’s growth.
It is China prerogative to remain idle.
It might still be possible for Chinese “Dream” to come true.
Yet, a historic window of opportunity is now closed.
Xi assumed the tools of proscribing and stalling, which are completely antithetical to the aforementioned window of opportunity.
Today, China is more authoritarian, less flexible, and fully deprived of horizontal accountability. Its reliance on wolf warrior diplomacy backfired: for example, the Swedish parliament sought to expel the Chinese ambassador to Stockholm. Also, Prague, the capital of Czechia, terminated its sister-city agreement with Shanghai and instead signed a new one with Taipei. Last but not least, we ought not to forget about the recent fiasco in the relations with the United States who ordered the shutdown of China’s consulate in Houston. All of this took its toll on China’s reputation.
Its international standing and inability to replace the U.S. as the major global power are not the only issues China is currently facing.
As it experiences multiple domestic and international shocks, China struggles to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and tame the disastrous floods of Yangtze River. The swarm of locusts of biblical proportions is also crippling Beijing’s institutional capacity and may soon lead to food shortages. In fact, the precarity of food supply further diminishes the level of trust for Chinese authorities.
In 2019, the Pew Research Center conducted a public opinion survey to examine the international views of China. In the U.S., Argentina, the U.K., Canada, Germany, and Ukraine, only about 30% of respondents claim a favorable view of China.
As the COVID-19 pandemic rages in the U.S., as many as 73% of U.S. respondents view China unfavorably.
Recently, the C.C.P. is losing its focus by continuously shifting targets. In fact, I believe there is no need for the C.C.P.to rely on nationalistic appeals, since in this new century values, business relations, and fair competition are all far more important than greater than delusive blood ties.
China lies only 130 kilometers away from us. Of course, we welcome dialogue and seek to avoid misjudgments. But we also distinguish between the C.C.P. and China. While we do welcome dialogue, but we will not be coerced to talk under unjust preconditions or in fear.
The only fair prerequisites are those of reciprocity, mutual respect as well as fairness and openness with respect for the rule of law.
Source: Pew Research Center
最近看到紐約時報中文版的一篇文章
<美國的川普,中國的「川建國」>,其中一小段是這樣的
「在中國,人們戲稱川普的中文名字是川建國。那是因為建國是共產黨愛國者中一個普遍的革命人名。它在諷刺地暗示川普對美國的治理不當實際上是在鞏固習近平的政權。」
裡面也提到,川普在任的幾年,國家更分裂,對於氣候變遷,傳統美國盟友,乃至於疫情處理等都相當拙劣,對於美國傳統的自由貿易、人權等價值也基本上都沒有太大興趣。這些方針,導致美國在世界的評價降低,波頓的新書也多有描述。
除此之外,許多不幸相信中共宣傳,又或者是中共圈養的小粉紅,特別故意愛宣傳川普增強中國的威望。
但這不是真的。
中共完全沒有掌握美國做得不夠好的地方,去增強其在世界的領導力。
在2016年時,秘魯的亞太峰會舉行期間,習近平政權爭取(RCEP)及亞太自由貿易區(FTAAP)談判;對比2017年初,美國剛宣布退出TPP,加上中國到「一帶一路」和亞洲基礎設施投資銀行,中國當時在世界全面發揮投資貿易、高科技併購還有其地緣戰略的影響力。
也是那個時候,各種的大國崛起、大國軍工、大國科技的宣傳影片此起彼落,似乎正準備要在世界舞台發光發熱。
這曾經是中共慢慢轉向的一個機會之窗。彼時(2017)美國盟友對美國總統的不信任度達到歷史新高,根據皮尤研究中心的資訊,英國對於美國總統的不信任度達到75%、日本72% 澳洲70% 法國更高達86%
如果那時中共開始有限度的改革,對內放寬言論自由,或者至少維持在胡溫當時的水中,對外追求有責任的基礎建設,逐步緩慢減低不公平的貿易壁壘,對於國有企業改革,增強私營企業、新創企業的活力。
停止對新疆迫害,不干預香港自治,不僅國際形象會大幅改善,哪怕是緩慢但是穩健的改革,也會讓大量吸引外資,讓中國的活力持續前進。
哪怕是什麼都不做也好
那或許有這麽一點可能性,中國「夢」是可以前行的
但是歷史機緣的大門已經關上。
習、禁、停、放棄了這個機會之窗,徹底的走向相反的方向。
更專制、更沒有彈性,更沒有任何制衡的力量。各種戰狼外交,讓瑞典議員提案驅逐中國大使,捷克布拉格市長與台北簽訂姊妹是,就解散上海與該市關係、被美國關閉領事館、各種讓中國形象低下的事情,中共都沒有少做。
中共不但完全沒有辦法取代美國,在多重國內外的衝擊之下,又是瘟疫,又是超大水患,緊接著蝗害,還有進來的糧食不足問題,正在面臨巨大的瓶頸。
而糧食的命脈,卻恰恰又在對他最不信任,對中共價值最反對的國家聯盟
根據皮尤研究中心:Pew Research Center2019調查各國對中國的喜好度,美國、阿根廷、英國、加拿大、德國、烏克蘭等,對於中國的喜好度都在30%上下
而2020疫情後美國對於中國的不信任度,更高達73%。
最近中共在演習,又要玩轉移目標的手段,對於中共,其實不必再有民族主義的同情,因為新的世紀,價值、商業模式、公平競爭的制度大於血緣幻想。
中國離我們只有130公里的距離,我們當然歡迎對話,避免誤判。但我們同時也區分中共與中國,歡迎對話,但不在前提、條件、恐懼之下對話。
如果真的要有前提,那就是對等、尊重,還有公平公開法治的方式會晤。
資料來源:皮尤研究中心:Pew Research Center
(美國著名的民調機構和智庫機構,https://www.pewresearch.org/)
u.s. bank 中文 在 彭博商業周刊 / 中文版 Facebook 的最佳貼文
【公司與產業】韓國護膚品的秘密
韓國化妝品巨頭魔法森林公司(Tony Moly)在紐約的旗艦店主打好幾款用蝸牛黏液製成的產品,包括蝸牛眼霜、爽膚水和潤膚霜,甚至還有一款「全效蝸牛面膜」。「蝸牛黏液素幫助皮膚修復再生的功效非常著名,」魔法森林美國市場的分銷負責人Michelle Kim表示:「絲芙蘭(Sephora)在看到我們的蝸牛啫喱(果凍)面膜之後也來問我們,能不能為他們開發一些產品。」
愛茉莉(Amorepacic)、魔法森林、LG生活健康(LG Household &Health Care)是在美國及全球越來越流行的一眾韓妝品牌當中的代表。它們承諾為客戶帶來光潔的皮膚,又為產品設計了誘人的包裝,讓包括城市旅行者公司(Urban Outtters)和塔吉特(Target)在內的幾家美國連鎖店開始
在自己的貨架上售賣它們的護膚產品。總部位於巴黎的化妝品零售商絲芙蘭也於今年秋季在它北美的所有380家門店裡推出了一個「K-beauty」(韓國美容美妝)活動,櫥窗裡都掛著海報和標語,宣傳這種來自韓國「讓人垂涎的粉嫩妝容」。
據韓國國際貿易協會(Korea International Trade Association) 提供的資料顯示,截至8月,韓國化妝品今年的海外銷量已經上漲了66%,達到15億美元。韓國輸出入銀行(Export-Import Bank of Korea)更預測,這一數字會在未來的5到10年上漲為100億美元。其中很大一部份需求來自中國,好幾個韓國品牌也在研發專門針對中國市場的產品。「在韓國,沒有人會使用馬油產品,但中國人就很愛用,」總部駐紐約的韓國美妝電子零售商Peach & Lily的行政總裁Alicia Yoon說。2014年,中國市場在愛茉莉集團的銷售額中佔了12%。
在韓國,女性每天的護膚程序可耗時一小時,其中包含4到20個步驟,且每個步驟都需要一個不同的產品。除了蝸牛黏液,好些產品還主打其他一些非同尋常的成份,如駱駝奶、蜂毒和海星提取物。「韓國有著護膚的傳統,這已經流傳上千年了,」Alicia Yoon說。
說來,美國時尚雜誌和美容網誌(blog)在推動韓國美妝產品於美國市場日益增長的需求, 幫了很大的忙。據美國商業服務部(U.S. CommercialService)的資料顯示,韓國美妝產品去年在美國的銷售額達到了1.541億美元, 較2005年增長了近五倍。2012年前後,絲芙蘭引進了韓國蒂佳婷(Dr.Jart+)品牌的美容膏,此後美國對韓國產品的興趣便開始逐漸升溫。美妝網誌(blog)為所謂的「BB霜」傾倒,繼而開始要求引進更多的韓國產品。「沒有這些網絡紅人的影響,這一切都不會發生,」Alicia Yoon說。
總部位於首爾的魔法森林公司於1994年成立,最初是一家包裝公司,後來於2006年轉型成一家化妝品公司,現在在韓國本土已經開設了600多家門店。「它基本上就像星巴克一樣,」金說。「每個街角都開著一家魔法森林。」
全文內容請見《彭博商業周刊/中文版》App
For iOS→https://itun.es/i66x6Xr
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