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Investors have been howling about interest rates since Monday, when part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007. The five-year Treasury yield dipped below that of the three year by a razor-thin 0.01 percentage points. Yawn.
But the fuss is overdone, at least so far. The “inversion” is so minuscule that it’s imperceptible on an actual yield curve. It’s also limited to a small part of the curve. As others have already pointed out, an inversion b...
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A section of the U.S. Treasuries yield curve just inverted for the first time in more than a decade.
The spread between 3- and 5-year yields fell to negative 1.4 basis points Monday, dropping below zero for the first time since 2007, and the 2- to 5-year gap soon followed. The 2- to 10-year is more closely watched as a potential indicator of pending recessions. But Monday’s move could be the first signal that the market is putting the Federal Reserve on notice that the end of its tightening cycle is approaching.
今天有bank stress test results.
The Fed examines the health of the balance sheets of the biggest financial companies every year to ensure that they have enough capital to withstand a shock to the system like the ones that brought down a number of banks during the 2007-09 financial crisis.
“(Stress test results) could be a catalyst for a day or two but it’ll still come back to the main driver, which is going to be the yield curve and loan growth, which has been OK but nothing to write home about,” said Samana.
Bank profits are boosted by a steepening yield curve, when the gap widens between short-dated Treasury yields and long-dated Treasury yields. Banks profit from the difference between short-term rates, which determine their borrowing costs, and long-term rates, which affect how much they can charge for loans such as mortgages.
"On June 29 last year, after banks released their capital plans following the stress test, the S&P 500 bank index .SPXBK ended the day 1.8 percent higher."
