關於 by all means go ahead ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment　(此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間９點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)

🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook

🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.

"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."

全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.

We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.

And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.

There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.

When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.

You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.

I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.

So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .

I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.

Here's some that I have been telling people I like:

First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.

Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.

The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.

I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.

So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.

Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.

Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.

There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.

So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051

Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.

🌻風險管理

跌了幾十趴的個股還要繼續抱下去嗎? 去年飆漲的SPAC, 今年還漲的回來嗎?(可以跟下篇一起看).

開始玩成長股後, 我學到最難的一堂課是風險控制. 每個人對風險控制的觀念不一樣, 這跟每個人的心理素質也有關係.

風險管理, 也就是"留得青山在, 不怕沒柴燒".

風險管理:
https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E7%AE%A1%E7%90%86

🌻There Are Too Many Defenseless(無防禦性的) Stocks
(可以的話, 我希望您可以好好讀一下這篇文章. 我希望能夠幫您守住些財富, 減少些損失, 甚至創造些獲利. "Too many", 也就代表了股票沒有稀有性)

The underwriters just created too many stocks. There's too many new companies, too many companies that help you with analytics(分析), too many that offer video, too many data collectors and too many real-time analysis, and too many cybersecurity companies. There's been too many new electric vehicle derivatives, too many cannabis (大麻) plays and way too many new fintechs(金融科技).

The effect? We are now facing a bewildering number of companies that simply do the same things and can't be differentiated (無差異性的) and, frankly, are too hard to understand unless you are deeply involved in the transfer of data from on your premises to the cloud(雲端).

Why does this matter?

Because these stocks are defenseless. They are defenseless against inflation (通膨) because so many of them sell at a multiple to sales and any company that trades as a multiple to sales (指的是以P/S為估值方式, 非傳統的P/E. 軟體公司主要是用P/S) will see its value erode more quickly than any other in this stock market because the company has to graduate from a multiple to sales to a multiple of earnings, or just keep losing money. So many new investors have not experienced real inflation where these kinds of stocks can't be given away.

They are defenseless against an economic boom. I have been reading through countless software as a whatever with a go to market strategy and a huge TAM (total addressable market, 指的是市場大小) to land and expand(指的是雲端公司的商業模式), and my eyes glaze over. Who needs a company with all of those buzzwords that's growing at 27% and losing money when I have plenty of high quality industrials that are growing at 27% and spewing cash to the point the biggest issue is how much should be put to growth versus rewarding shareholders.

They are defenseless against older companies with a balanced policy toward dividends and buybacks, so that supply is mopped up while demand is bolstered by a yield. The land and expanders don't have anything backing them up which makes them vulnerable to sudden shocks down as we have seen.

They are defenseless against insider selling. If capital gains rates are going up, these are the companies with the most vulnerable stocks because so many of the people in these new companies have stocks that are still up substantially from when they got stock so a company with a stock down 30%-40% is vulnerable from scads of insider selling, including secondaries I am now expecting with increasing frequency.

They are defenseless against SPACs. While there are many good SPACs there are too many SPACs with too much stock sloshing around. I keep thinking about that MP Materials (MP) secondary offering in late March, where entities controlled by CEO James Litinsky sold 4.6 million shares of his company in a deal priced at $35. Now it is a small percentage of his holdings and many others involved with the company sold small amounts, too. That's not the point. It's more of a statement: this stock traded at $50. You might have been inclined to buy on the pullback but you would have been massacred as the stock is now at $27. If you have a so-called successful SPAC its success might be measured by how much money you took out of it before its stock fell by 50%. There are hundreds of things and when you consider all of the warrants out there, you know this market is going to be overwhelmed with this stuff.

You aren't going to see these kinds of secondaries at Deere (DE) or Caterpillar (CAT) , that's for certain.

Now there are people out there willing to buy the incredibly almost stupidly risky stocks, people like Cathie Wood, who demonstrated her unflappable conviction to her method of buying stocks that worked when there's scarcity value but there's anything but that now.

Maybe she can take down tens of billions of dollars worth and save the day. I wouldn't count on it. I am sorry to question her stock picking, lord knows she's been amazing. But unless others copy her, we know the stocks she is buying resemble what's not working at all. Maybe someday, but not now.

I try to figure out what the end game for these stocks might be if the economy keeps heating up and inflation accelerates. There's simply not enough money from young people or ETFs based on high growth or Cathie Wood to keep these stocks higher, and there's too much opportunity for the insiders to do what MP did, something that crunched the stock even as it reported a quarter ahead of expectations, which meant something at one point but means absolutely nothing now. Nothing at all.

文章來源: https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer-there-are-too-many-defenseless-stocks-15649142

Picture來源:
https://society6.com/product/boxing-cat_print

《South China Morning Post》
Which Chinese zodiac sign will have the best 2021? Year of the Ox predictions for love, health, career and wealth
https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/arts-culture/article/3121172/which-chinese-zodiac-sign-will-have-best-2021-year-ox
• Those born in the year of the tiger and rabbit will prosper this year and Hong Kong’s luck will improve overall, a feng shui expert says
• But those born in the year of the ox, horse, sheep and dog can expect a difficult and challenging year
• Those who feel beaten down by the coronavirus pandemic and economic downturn that plagued the Year of the Rat, take heart.
• Starting on Friday, which marks the first day of the Year of the Ox, Hong Kong’s collective fortune is about to change – for the better.
• According to feng shui expert Yunwenzi, or Master Cloud, the new year will be one of nourishment and healing. However, while the city’s overall luck is expected to improve, what the Year of the Ox has in store for us individually will largely depend on the Chinese zodiac sign we were born under.
• To help you navigate through the coming year, here are some tips on the dos and don’ts from Yunwenzi that promise to help each animal sign find health, love and prosperity.
Ox
For those born in the Year of Ox, take heed. This is also a year in which your zodiac sign is at odds with the guardian god Tai Sui (or Fan Tai Shui), who determines the fortunes and setbacks of mortals.
Oxen will face a number of issues in their career in the coming year. Beware of back-stabbing colleagues or getting into disputes. Focus on your work to avoid unnecessary mistakes at work.
“The ox should beware of the risk of getting fired in the coming year. They’ll lack luck and it may be hard for them to get a new job,” warns Yunwenzi. “It is also difficult for them to accumulate wealth this year as they may make bad investment decisions. They should not invest in projects which they are unfamiliar with.”
Oxen will not enjoy much romance either over the next 12 months; try not to look for partners in clubs or at parties. Illnesses will be a problem too, owing to their weak immune system, so they need to take extra care of themselves.
Tiger
Contrary to those born in the Year of the Ox, the tiger is the luckiest of all the 12 zodiac animals this year. They will encounter plenty of gui ren – helpful people – who will help them realise their plans. Tigers should take advantage of the momentum and explore different possibilities. It will be a good time to start a business.
They are also lucky in love this year. For those seeking a relationship, seize the opportunities and enjoy the many pleasant romantic encounters.
“Widening their social circle not only brings them unexpected rewards but also boosts their overall luck in the year,” Yunwenzi explains.
But she reminds the tigers not to be arrogant and opinionated, as having good fortune does not necessarily mean all their actions are without consequences. For those who frequently attend social events, try not to overeat or else risk suffering from cardiovascular diseases.
Rabbit
The Year of the Ox is good for those born under the Rabbit sign. Everything will be quite rosy and they will be able to bounce back from rock bottom. Filled with positivity and optimism, this is a good year for them to set goals and go in new directions.
However, unlike the tigers, there are not many gui ren around for the rabbits and they pretty much have to rely on themselves to get things done. At work, their effort will be recognised by their superior and there might be a chance of promotion.
Romance is also in the air for the rabbits – but mind that large age gap. Patience and mutual understanding are needed if they want to establish a strong relationship.
The rabbit should avoid strenuous exercise to prevent injuries to the limbs.
Dragon
A stable and average year ahead for those born in the Year of the Dragon: their career will come to a standstill, which will make them doubt their working abilities. Yet, a twist of fate is expected after mid-autumn so it’s worth waiting for the opportunity to present itself.
Although dragons will have many romantic encounters this year, they may still end up unsatisfied as they are not devoting much time to nurture their relationship(s). Their impulsiveness also means they easily fall in love with the wrong person.
The dragon will have a weak lung this year, associated with respiratory diseases. They may also be prone to bad skin.
Snake
It will be a year filled with both fortune and risk for snakes. Since you will be surrounded by people, unexpected opportunities will arise from your growing social network.
“Their rising popularity may also attract people who speak with a ‘forked tongue’. They should work more and talk less. Their hard work will pay off,” says Yunwenzi.
Unmarried snakes will stay single this year because they are too picky. They are advised to lower their requirements when looking for a partner.
Beware of health problems such as spinal disc hernia, frozen shoulder and bony spur.
Horse
This will be a roller coaster year for those born in the Year of the Horse. Their long-awaited plans will be postponed or even halted due to unexpected variables, but as the saying goes, “amid every crisis lies a great opportunity”, and career opportunities will arise during the winter.
They should stay calm and sincerely tackle difficulties faced by their colleagues and company. This will gain their boss’s trust and confidence in them.
Apart from work, sincerity is also key to success in relationships. Just be true to yourself and the right person will be attracted by your charisma. Beware of eye and head problems; headaches and dizziness may occur frequently throughout the year.
Sheep
Those born in the Year of the Sheep should expect a difficult and challenging year. They will face a lot of obstacles in all aspects of life. The Year of the Ox is not one for them to make any important decisions such as starting a business or changing jobs as their mind might be clouded with confusion.
The sheep should stop finding excuses and acting like an otaku. Actively expanding and engaging in their social circles will bring them romantic luck.
“This is a Xing Tai Sui year for sheep, which means that they should also care for their safety as it is foreseen that they may have traffic accidents within the year,” warns Yunwenzi.
Monkey
The monkey foresees a flourishing year full of opportunities and good fortune. They should be receptive to new ideas and seize golden opportunities. They will get help from a female gui ren which will help them get better results.
They will also have a breakthrough in their career. They will easily get approval from their boss and promotion is on the horizon. For those who wish to start their own business, it is a good year to test the water by setting up a low-cost online business.
Monkeys will also have a fruitful social life this year. They will have opportunities to make new friends who have charming personalities. Thanks to the monkey’s attractiveness and social popularity, sparks may fly. It is wise for monkeys to make their intentions clear from the start to avoid ambiguous signals that could damage their reputation and friendships.
Kidney deficiency is likely to emerge in the Year of the Ox. They should also be aware of lower back pain.
Rooster
Roosters will have better fortune this year. This will be a “learning year” for them so they should stop being passive and start actively fighting for opportunities. Although the outcome may be unexpected or unsatisfying, each challenge is a golden learning opportunity.
The rooster also receives blessings from Wen Chang, the god that oversees the intelligence and wisdom of mortals. They should use their time for further studies.
People born under the sign of the rooster will not have much luck in love this year. They may feel tired and lose interest in searching for love. The rooster will not suffer from any major health problems this year, though they are prone to catching minor infections.
Dog
The dog is looking at a troubling year ahead as, like those born in the Year of the Sheep, they will go through a Xing Tai Sui year. It will result in an unstable year filled with trouble and difficulties in relationships. Brace yourselves for the worst during the middle of the year.
Accumulated stress means dogs may lose their temper. Bad fortune will come knocking with all that pent-up negativity.
They will also not have any luck in relationships this year. They should choose their partner wisely and only start a relationship when they have a better understanding of their lover. Dogs should also look after their mental health. Poor stress-induced sleep quality will increase the risk of developing mental illness such as depression.
Pig
Fortune shines on the pigs this year. They are always at their best and are quick-witted. They should attend more social gatherings to broaden their network and develop new job and business opportunities. Pigs could also set a more ambitious goal this year.
Those born in the Year of the Pig may be attracted to a number of people simultaneously, and this could even develop into multiple affairs. The complicated relationships will harm their hopes for romance in the long run.
Their health is hugely improved this year, and there is no major health problem predicted.
Rat
After experiencing a terrible Year of the Rat, those born under this animal zodiac sign will see a boost in their fortunes. But they must be persistent and persevere as their luck will remain average for the first half of the year.
They are advised not to set their goals too high but keep their feet on the ground and be prepared to face any challenges. They will be able to achieve their goals in the second half of 2021.
The rat tends to be indecisive in relationships. They lack security when it comes to love, especially when potential new partners emerge on the horizon. It will make them passive and unable to devote themselves to maintaining the relationship, which will not last.
They have a weak reproductive system this year. A regular check-up is advised.

#雲文子 #奇門遁甲 #風水 #玄學天后

This movie is amazing! As an Overseas Filipino Worker who has been in Singapore for 10 years, I have little to no knowledge at all when it comes to Singapore's history. This movie gave me enough knowledge and understand how Singlish evolved as a language. I understand how difficult it was to transition from using a language you are comfortable with to a new one that for most, could be a huge challenge.
I love how it started with a family story, simple and just nice. It was a great way to give a nostalgic feeling to those who were born at that time. Then slowly, it transitioned to having mutiple complications of the story, which means, drama. All actors chemistry were perfect. From my love both cousins to just one. And the sisters, how briiliant were they? The oldeest sister deserves an award.
The acting was not forced. For the first time, I have seen Singapore's talents and I would say, they can act, and they can cry! I cried with them. I missed my mama every time they mentioned their mama. I laughed when the make jokes. No clingy moments, just fun.

When you thought it was over, the character focused changed and the new plot arises. This time, the uncle of the main character. Brilliant idea! Brilliant way of story telling. I salute Jack Neo for this movie and I would not be surprised if this is a hit.

Please go ahead to watch this with your family and friends. It's very informative and helps me a lot to understand more about Singapore's history.
#TheDiamDiamEra #JackNeoTheDiamDiamEra

For more follow at

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/crappyblogger/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/crappyblogger_/
Blog: www.crappyblogger.com
Psyched Blog: https://www.crappyblogger.com/search/label/Psyched

Most of the time, when you cry your heart out to others, the most they can advise you is "stay positive dear." Well, now what exactly stay positive means?

How do you even stay positive when all the emotions are compiling into massive energy and overwhelm you at the most unimaginable way?


1. Accept That "You Are Who You Are"

You are you. You can't change you and be what others are expecting out of you. If you are the person who likes to spend time all alone then don't take the extra initiative to change what you prefer.

Accept what you truly are. If you are clueless about you then study about your own self. Get to know you personally. When reading a novel makes you happy, nothing that others say is going to change your mind now. You know exactly why you are avoiding all the other plans and reading a novel now.

When you accept you as you are, nothing is going to kill the positivity that happens around you when you are doing your happy stuff. In fact, you will feel more confident and super positive as you know exactly why you're doing certain things in life.


2. Set A Goal To Reach

While you are surrounded by grey cloud, you would be able to see a path that leads you out of the grey cloud. Your Goal.

Yes, you would immediately be able to focus on your goal and ignore all the negativity around you. Focus on flourishing and enriching life.

If you are easily distracted, then make sure that each step, though it is a very small step brings you forward towards your goals.


3. Plan Your Day

Wake up to having plans each day. Don't wake up all lost and not knowing what to do. If can plan your day one day ahead. Have a list of things to do.

Wake up with the energy to accomplish things. If you feel like resting than rest well. No mood should make you feel weak. Have a reason to why you deserve the rest. If you feel low then distract yourself with another plan.

Meditate or something. Try downloading a new game on your phone. Try reading a new novel. Figure out what will keep you positive and active throughout the day. Plan it well.

4. Let go

Don't hold it anymore. Whatever that has been breaking you into pieces is now got to leave you. Sometimes, it is you who would have been holding on to it. Let it go.

Try living a life without that negativity and you will start noticing other unopened doors in life. Start to explore and discover other parts of life that you haven't figure yet.

Let the negativity go and start opening your eyes to all the positive things around you. Sometimes putting closure to your negativity will help you to move on fast. Do it.

"So we can go beyond this world"

Split/Beyond This World
Music by Stranded Whale
Artworks by viiijasmine

Split

No one can tell what it truly means to be free
You can’t do things when there’s no one standing by you

I mix things up when they don’t belong to each other
And got so tired of pleasing you as my friend

*There are much to do
I believe
The day had gone again
To my regret

Just the other day I lost myself in my mind
Ideas fulfilled but they don’t work as well as I wish

It’s pretty clear on which way we should go
Can we keep walking as long as it is required?

Repeat*

-

Beyond This World

Today seems strange in many ways
It just so happened to you

I sing a song when I feel bad
To ease my troubles away

So I turn another page
To get ready to start anew

We’ve come this far
Don’t look back to

In the past
When we were young

Nothing has really changed
The same mistakes

Some people walk for many days
In the hope of getting away

I shall leave no more
There is no place to hide

We’ve come this far
Don’t look back to

In the post
When we were young

There’s no sign up ahead
So we can go beyond this world

So we can go beyond this world
So we can go beyond this world

Get the songs on bandcamp: https://strandedwhale.bandcamp.com/
Stranded Whale's Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/strandedwhalehk
viiijasmine's website: https://www.viiijasminecheung.com/

All rights reserved ©2020
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stranded Whale
Jabin Law - vocals, guitars
Tomii Chan - vocals, electrics
Yikin Lo - keyboards
Dean Li - percussion, drums
Chun Hin Leung - bass guitar