關於 crwd新聞 ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

🌻美國生活

越接近八月底, 早晚的溫差越來越大了. 現在到了晚上, 要穿上長袖長褲, 才覺得保暖. 而空氣也跟夏季的感覺起來不同了. 不那麼潮濕, 而有著較爽脆的感覺(英文是用crisp air來形容).

秋天也是菊花的季節. 超市也開始賣起了菊花. 各種顏色的菊花, 大大小小, 排在一起挺漂亮(照片1-3).

🌻疫情受惠科技成長股Zoom(ZM), Crowdstrike(CRWD)昨天跟今天發表財報了. 還是脫離不了魔咒(就是跌).

ZM還沒看. 不過稍微看了CRWD一下. Loss from operations有增加; 有提高全年度的財測. 有空的話, 會在另外一篇寫一下CRWD.

🌻前一陣子一家專門販售燕麥奶(oat milk)的公司, Oatly(OTLY)上市了.

上週去買菜的時候看到, 有好多種oat milk上架. 這還不是在Walmart(覆蓋範圍較大的連鎖超市). 請見第四張照片.

挑股時, 要常問自己的一句話就是, 一家公司的競爭優勢在哪裡.

競爭優勢:
https://wiki.mbalib.com/zh-tw/%E7%AB%9E%E4%BA%89%E4%BC%98%E5%8A%BF

🌻本周做的功課與閱讀

--目前的幾個危機與轉機
1. 西部港口又塞住了-->影響到供應鏈-->影響到零售業&年底購物季? 實體商品也會有cost pressure
2. Delta variant-->九月開學, 回去上班-->九月中疫情再惡化? 是否會影響到股市? 是否會影響到labor market? 九月後trading volume也會增加.
3. 失業救濟將於九月結束;九月學校開學, 家長回去上班-->會壓抑薪資的上漲-->舒緩通膨壓力

--關於大盤
The fact that the selloff petered out so quickly only increases the odds that the next one, whenever it arrives, could be even more violent. “The selloff has come and gone, and equities back at new highs will merely encourage more of the investor behavior that historically precedes larger fragility shocks,” Asis explains.

幾個可以注意的時間點:
9月初: ADP, 非農
9月初~9月中: 持續關注疫情相關新聞
09/21-22: Fed meeting
09/27前: 基建案相關新聞

--投資idea

全世界現在風不調雨不順. 一個氣候變遷的投資題材, 就是水資源了 (怎麼沒想到, 水也是原物料(commodity)的一種.)

Water Is Getting More Expensive. That’s an Opportunity.

At least 50% of the stocks listed in each of the four major U.S. stock indexes are in industries with medium-to-high water risk, according to an analysis by Ceres, says James.

RBC’s investment framework for water focuses on the names at the “higher end” of what it calls the “water valuation continuum.” Those include firms that have “more embedded water technology” such as Xylem (XYL), Evoqua Water Technologies ( AQUA ), Danaher (DHR), and Mueller Water Products (MWA), Dray says.

相關ETF有PIO, PHO.

其他細節:
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/08/blog-post_31.html

🌻名人勵志話語

愛因斯坦：不是因為我有多聰明，而是我和問題相處比較久
It's not that I'm so smart; it's just that I stay with problems longer.

在某種程度上而言, 投資是極為需要耐心的一種活動. 常常有些答案, 不是找不到, 而是自己有沒有耐心與用心. 這跟聰不聰明其實沒有關係.

照片來源: http://swedenborgstudy.org/1039.html

🌻昨天跟朋友出遊. 我們有好幾個月沒見面了. 即使天氣不太好, 我們還是堅持原訂的計畫. 可見我們多想見到對方.

見面的時候, 我們都沒有戴口罩. 當我們擁抱的時候, 我鼻頭好酸好酸.

Anyway. 我想說的是, 請台灣的讀者撐著點. 這一切終將過去. 請盡量想&做讓自己快樂的事情.

"You hold tight to your umbrella
Well, darlin', I'm just tryin' to tell ya
That there's always been a rainbow hangin' over your head"

Kacey Musgraves-Rainbow // Lyrics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p446BgZJrcg

🌻暫定台灣時間本周日(06/06)早上10點做年報導讀. 美國這邊的朋友也歡迎(美東時間周六晚上10點, 美西時間晚上7點). 會以Zoom進行(抱歉我不會露臉😅). 周四會將細節公布.

如果屆時不方便, 我會將影片錄下來, 之後可以觀看.

如果想要我導讀特定一家的年報, 可以在下方留言. 我會試自己的能力圈而做決定.

🌻Shopify(SHOP)財報
抽空看了一下SHOP的財報.

兩個印象較深的點是:
1. 高層稱他們為commerce operating system(電商的作業系統)(這其實高層提過好幾季了, 不過之前沒注意到. 之前高層用的字眼是retail operating system). 這讓我想到微軟也是做operating system.
2. 他們是把企業用戶(enterprise)等級的設施給中小型電商來使用: "the company’s platform offers security, scalability, and reliability that is normally only available to businesses with enterprise-level budgets (from一位分析師)"

兩個需要注意的地方是:

1. 今年還是會很積極地做投資&擴展, 這或許會對利潤造成壓力:
"........and plan to reinvest back into our business as aggressively as we can with a year-over-year growth in operating expenses accelerating each quarter throughout the rest of the year."

"As such, we expect full year 2021 adjusted operating income to be below the level we achieved in 2020."

2. 高層異動很大(可參考這篇新聞: https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/3500525).
分析師已經連續兩季問高層公司文化方面的問題了. 公司在年報中也有說過, 高層的異動會是影響公司營運的風險之一. 不過實際上會如何還是需要持續觀察. 供參. (有附上年報中關於這點的截圖)

Anyway. 其他內容可到部落格那邊去看:
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2020/03/shopifyshop.html

🌻這周末是Memorial Day weekend. 周一股市不開盤. 住北美的讀者長周末愉快: On Friday, May 28, 2021, the bond market will close at 2 PM ET. On Monday, May 31, stock, options, and bond markets will be closed. Futures markets will have reduced hours.

🌻A big jobs report looms in the week ahead, as markets enter the often-weak month of June
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/28/jobs-report-looms-in-the-week-ahead-as-markets-enter-the-often-weak-month-of-june.html

🌻附上下周發表財報公司的一覽表. 我會關注研究過的CRWD, DOCU, LULU, NCNO.

Pictures: 這跟我一直很想種的花類似, 不過沒魚蝦也好. 也竟然被我種了出來(花名忘了); from earningswhisper.com

去年的崩盤與融斷, 感覺就像才發生過一樣, 沒想到已經一年了. 時間真的過的很快. 希望大家一切都好.

🌻本周做的功課與閱讀
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/03/blog-post_17.html

🌻Docusign (DOCU), Crowdstrike (CRWD)財報結果

當初研究這兩家公司, 是把公司的年報看過一遍, 再把公司上市後所發表的財報結果全部看了一遍(doubt if I will do this again). 這樣的舖天蓋地有好有壞: 壞處當然就是很花時間, 但好處就是徹頭徹尾研究過一遍後, 之後就只要看看財報結果就好了, 也比較知道高層的想法. 而每季財報看下來, 其實會發現很多資訊都是重複的. 以後可能慢慢變成用聽的就好了.

(P.S. 大公司(道瓊股這些)其實不太需要做甚麼研究. 時間跟精力比較值得放在陌生or較小型的公司.)

而研究CRWD的時候, 其實也挺怕, 畢竟資安股不是我熟悉的領域. 但有感於資安越來越重要, 所以覺得一定要有突破. 當時也換了一種分析方式來做研究(不專注在科技上, 而是專注在商業模式, 管理層, 還有競爭環境上), 算是實驗性質. 也有懂資安的股友協助. 結果還算令人滿意.

Anyway. 這兩家公司的護城河都算是起來了, 未來應該不會有甚麼大問題出現. 只是目前正值類股輪動時期, 大家就有耐心點. 供參.

如果會擔心公司股價漲不回來, 可以去注意公司的現金流狀態, 或是換到價值股。供參。
https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/461235

DOCU官方財報結果新聞稿:
https://investor.docusign.com/investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2021/DocuSign-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Fiscal-Year-2021-Financial-Results/default.aspx

CRWD官方財報結果新聞稿:
https://ir.crowdstrike.com/news-releases/news-release-details/crowdstrike-reports-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2021

🌻了解"文化", 在研究消費性產品, 是很重要的一環. 這也是各地(亞洲, 或是美國)的投資人, 有在那邊的地利之便, 各有其優勢所在.

下面兩段文章, 分別是投資經理人, 對於韓國電商Coupang(CPNG)以及拉丁美洲電商MercadoLibre(MELI), 在當地文化上所做的質化分析:

#CPNG
There’s a pattern here: Homegrown startups in the world’s hottest industry are beating the pants off global giant Amazon.com (AMZN) and Chinese heavyweight Alibaba Group Holding (BABA). Cultural knowledge is prevailing over scale, and Coupang (CPNG) offers some lessons on why. Its next-level delivery network—order before midnight, get it early the next morning—is adapted for a nation of dense population and small refrigerators. “Customers get hooked on ordering a carton of milk or tube of toothpaste,” says Yoojeong Oh, investment director for Korea at Aberdeen Standard Investments.

#MELI
Mercado has distinct advantages over comparable e-commerce players. First, e-commerce penetration in Latin America is a fraction of that in the U.S., roughly around 3%, Gautrey says. Mercado also has built out its warehouse, trucking, and delivery infrastructure—much like Amazon.com (AMZN), but with one key distinction. “Particularly when you go into emerging markets, relying on the nationalized postal infrastructure can mean a delivery takes several days to arrive,” Gautrey says. “Building out your own logistics infrastructure can dramatically improve the consumer experience. And then having that infrastructure also acts as a barrier to entry for [competitors].” The stock is up 178% in the past year, yet Gautrey thinks the market continues to underestimate its potential.

Source: Barron's

圖片: Happy St. Patrick's Day. 美國一年一度的聖派屈克節, 在今天(美國03/17); Barron's去年本周的封面.

圖片來源:
https://www.zazzle.com/happy_st_patricks_day_talking_cat_in_face_mask_holiday_card-256515595609283035?rf