橡樹資本 Howard Marks 的新 memo，每次都會貼出來，建議可以看完，但我抓一點來寫心得好了。
The renewed spike of Covid-19 cases has caused the reopening of the U.S. economy in some areas to be delayed or reversed.
- 二次疫情導致再封或延遲開放，已知
The emergence of politics as the general election approaches decreases, in my opinion, the likelihood that future support payments will be as generous as the early rounds.
- 合理，流動性問題解決了，失業慢慢解決當然不用大撒幣了，但是施點小恩惠仍可期
People with the choice may not return to the office for several months, holding back both overall productivity and the recovery of businesses that exist to serve office populations.
- 後疫情現象，已知
People who are reliant on mass transit to commute to work – or on schools to care for their kids – may be slower to return to work than they otherwise would be.
- 難怪腳踏車相關股認真的在噴？無法大眾運輸改騎腳踏車
Some industries whose business models have been affected – like airlines, resorts and entertainment – may take years to recover to their prior levels.
- 已知，所以才在節目講說還躺在地上的股票不要亂撿，以風險程度來說飯店、航空、渡假村、實體娛樂相關產業>>>>>>> 民生、軍武，且可能是下一個破產的熱門人選
Many restaurants and other small businesses may never reopen.
- 已知，疫情會改變許多人的生活型態
With industries evolving, more being done digitally and management teams having had an opportunity to watch their companies function with fewer people, some jobs may never return.
- 疫情後有些公司會發現原來這麼多冗員，原來少少的人配上最新科技根本就能運作，所以會有人失業也是已知
Finally, the pandemic has accelerated preexisting trends such as automation and the decline of brick-and-mortar retail, and thus their contribution to job losses.
- 所以電商噴爆，合理
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/timeforthinking.pdf
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