🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.
這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html
(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).
關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.
分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".
分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.
🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.
Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.
產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.
Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."
🌻SPAC熱潮退卻，初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示，在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%，市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"
"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金，以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者，都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊，他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場，所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上，SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元，高於一年前的約1,000億美元，反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。
但即便如此，今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠，扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域，其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡，一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"
"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環，因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價，投資者就更有可能這樣做，而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前，在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中，超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。
投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少，讓其更難實現業務目標，並可能加劇股價跌勢。"
https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC
🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.
The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.
https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972
Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers
native評價 在 [心得] Native Camp試用一個月心得- 看板Language - 批踢踢 ... 的推薦與評價
被點名了我也來分享一下試用心得
我自己因為工作需求的關係目前上了兩年左右的線上英文
Native Camp 是我第6個加入超過一個月的線上教學單位
會加入完全是看上他隨點隨上 免預約的彈性 和超划算的價格
很適合我自己工作忙碌 行程不固定的生活型態
這一個月內我上了20小時左右的課
都是沒預約 看老師的分數 & 介紹影片 覺得OK就點進去上課
主題都是Daily news, free talk, 5 minutes discussion為主
我得說像這樣沒預約 沒做功課 隨點隨上的老師 就是滿碰運氣
這是我覺得老師水準參差不齊的原因
我自己喜歡互動性高的課
(現在同時在另一個地方上課 每個老師都很投入 建立高標QQ)
希望上課時不只是學習英文 而是用英文來討論某些主題之類的
藉由高強度的討論來加強自己表達能力
如果只是念文章 單字 文法 感覺老師只是照著SOP走的NPC
我就會覺得寧願自己念了
但幾次在上Daily News的時候 碰到幾位老師有點心不在焉
叫我念文章然後自己就放空恍神 我念完還要等他回神
樣板問題照SOP念過 不管我的回答是什麼都說 good good
想跟老師確認某個單字的細節 他也只是照著教材的定義念一遍
然後問我 Do you understand?
這種毫無互動感的課程也有在Free talk & 5 minutes discussion出現過
5 minutes discussion就是有些內建的主題
選定某個主題後系統應該會給老師一些相關的問題
然後可以藉由一問一答來做討論
但我也碰過老師問完問題 我回答講了一大串
老師只回應 OK, good. 然後就念下一題的
有時我自己都發現我說錯了老師也沒糾正我啊...
覺得自己投入真感情結果是跟NPC講話(咦?)
這種時候雖然是月費制 上這堂課好像也沒多付錢
但時間才是最大的成本啊... 浪費25分鐘沒學到東西又不開心
口音的部分我覺得有板友推文解釋得滿好的 每個國家都有自己的口音
例如中國台灣同樣講中文 但有時看中國劇還是需要字幕不然聽不懂
我自己的看法是 我認知這些不同口音的存在
但我在Native Camp上課時不會太在意老師有沒有標準的英美加口音
因為我自己沒有期待在Native Camp上發音的課
(如同前面提到的 我想透過互動加強我的表達能力)
不同的口音對我來說算是聽力訓練 畢竟工作也會碰到
所以只要老師介紹影片 我聽起來不會覺得太吃力 就願意試試
就我的經驗 非母語老師或多或少都有口音
跟我們習慣的英美口音明顯不同
很多台灣人的發音都比NC的非母語老師更接近英美口音
如果在意這一點的人 可能需要花錢預約母語老師 不然就是要很認真挑
講這麼多壞話(?) 這20小時裡面也是有很不錯的經驗
有跟老師求救請他幫我應付英文作業(不是這樣用的吧?)
有碰過一樣是運動愛好者 聊一些近期賽事和運動家精神
有跟老師聊到說我失眠結果他推薦我咖啡(???)
或是聊不同政治體制的利與弊之類的...
有時候沒想聊那麼硬的話題就日常閒聊
找個老師靠北今天工作碰到什麼鳥事也是滿紓壓的(?)
我自己今天試用期最後一天QQ 下個月應該會付費繼續使用
因為這個平台能提供我需要的大量練習的機會
這一個月也收藏了幾個不錯的老師
農曆年快到了 剛好努力上課上好上滿
而且我的預約用金幣還沒用完不想浪費(?)
我自己覺得適合的人:
可上課的時間很多(月費制, 攤下來比較划算)
行程不固定(隨點隨上, 目前經驗真的是24小時都有老師)
不介意教材無聊(我個人主觀感覺 orz)
很能主動開話題聊天 (如果選free talk)
不太在意口音 (可以透過介紹影片挑)
不適合的人:
真的超忙的人 (上課時間少單價就高了)
想找老師教發音的人 (如果要花錢預約母語老師, 就沒有價格優勢了)
最後給想試用的人:
強烈建議要試用的人找現任會員推薦!!
被推薦者的試用期可以從一周延長到整整一個月
推薦者也能獲得額外的金幣來預約老師
以上主觀看法分享
有心得或問題歡迎討論囉
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